The upcoming general elections are expected to bring an interesting competition to the Kairana Lok Sabha seat in western Uttar Pradesh. While the issue of Hindus leaving the region has been a significant factor in previous elections, there appears to be a shift in the political landscape this time around, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) rethinking its previous poll plank while the Samajwadi Party (SP) will stick to cultivating Muslims who constitute 42% of the local population.

The matter became the talk of the nation for the first time when BJP leader Hukum Singh expressed concerns about Hindus leaving Kairana, intimidated by Muslims. During the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election campaign, the BJP made the Kairana exodus a central focus. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath brought up the issue again in 2021 before the Assembly election. However, the SP’s victory in Kairana in the 2022 Assembly election seems to have prompted the BJP to reconsider its strategy.

A reason for the BJP’s defeat in the assembly by-election is believed to be its ‘betrayal’. After the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013, the party had assured the Jat families of the accused of legal help or dropping of charges against them on coming to power. Local sources said after the 2022 result that neither promise had been fulfilled. On the other hand, mainstream media completely suppressed this grievance and touted the discontent in sugar mills as the reason for the drubbing the BJP received in Kairana.

BJP strategy notwithstanding, SP relies on Muslims

Despite this, the SP continues to rely on the support of Muslim voters in Kairana. The party is counting on the anti-incumbency sentiment against BJP MP Pradeep Chaudhary too.

The SP has put its faith in Iqra Hassan, the sister of current MLA Nahid Hassan, who had a significant victory margin in the previous assembly election. On the other hand, Pradeep Chaudhary is emphasizing the policies implemented by the central and state governments.

Although the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) had a successful run in 2009, the BJP managed to win the Kairana seat in both 2014 and 2019.

Despite the coalition of the SP, BSP and Rashtriya Lok Dal in 2019, Pradeep Chaudhary of the BJP secured more than 50% of the votes and emerged victorious by a margin of around 90,000 votes. His rival, Tabassum Begum, is the mother of the current SP candidate, Iqra Hassan.

Iqra Hassan asserts that she enjoys backing from all sections of society, especially women. In an interview with a television channel, Hassan claimed that there was no sign of religious polarization in the lead-up to the elections.

Hassan stated, “For the first time, local concerns are taking precedence over national narratives. Our campaign is centred around issues like rural development, healthcare, education, payment of dues to sugarcane farmers, and MSP.”

Pradeep Chaudhary, the incumbent MP and BJP nominee, admitted the challenges related to sugarcane payments but assured that they are being addressed. During an interview with another television channel, he responded to criticism about his limited visits to the region by pointing out the enhanced connectivity through various road projects as evidence of his involvement in local matters.

Trump card?

The BJP has now formed a new alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) under the leadership of Jayant Chaudhary, which had previously secured two seats in partnership with the SP. Consequently, the party’s campaign focus has shifted towards issues concerning farmers.

Together, the BJP and RLD currently control four out of the available assembly seats in the Kairana Lok Sabha constituency.

The BJP is also counting on a potential shift in Jat votes in western Uttar Pradesh following the decision to confer Bharat Ratna upon Chaudhary Charan Singh, which facilitated the alliance with the RLD.

A notable segment of Jat voters, who had expressed discontent with the government during the farmers’ protest, appears to be leaning towards the BJP due to the influence of Jayant Chaudhary.

Amid the electoral competition between two prominent candidates, the BSP has chosen Shripal Rana as their candidate, recognising the dissatisfaction among Thakurs towards the BJP in the local area. Despite not being a frontrunner, Rana has the opportunity to make a significant impact by leveraging the support of Thakur voters and 15% of Dalit voters.